Why Black Friday toy shopping should start from your kid's list
Black Friday toy shopping works best when it starts from your kid's own list, not the retailer's flyer. Kids tell you what they want all through November, out loud and at random. A 40-page flyer is picked by a merchandising team. Shop the flyer and you buy what is cheap and loud. Shop the list and you buy what your kid actually lit up over.
You know the moment. You're in the store for paper towels. Your five-year-old stops in front of a shelf, points, and says "I want THAT." Ten minutes later it's a different toy in a different aisle. By the parking lot you can't remember either one. If that sounds like every trip, our guide on what to do when your kid wants everything helps you sort real wants from passing ones.
32%
of Thanksgiving weekend 2025 shoppers bought toys, second only to clothing at 51% (NRF)
According to the National Retail Federation (2025), toys were the second most popular gift category over Thanksgiving weekend. With that many toy dollars moving in four days, a few wrong buys add up fast. The fix takes a little effort: capture the list as it happens, then let the deals come to the list.
Black Friday 2026 dates for toy shopping
Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday, November 27, the day after Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 26. Cyber Monday follows on November 30. Industry trackers such as the NRF measure the holiday season from November 1 to December 31, so deals run all season, but the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday carry most of the toy action.
| Day | 2026 date | What to expect for toys |
|---|---|---|
| Season opens | Sun, Nov 1 | Early deals start. The holiday season window opens. |
| Thanksgiving | Thu, Nov 26 | Big online day. Shoppers spent $6.4B online on Thanksgiving 2025. |
| Black Friday | Fri, Nov 27 | Adobe's 2025 forecast picked it as the best day for toys. Online spend hit $11.8B in 2025. |
| Weekend | Sat, Nov 28 to Sun, Nov 29 | Deals mostly continue online and in stores. |
| Cyber Monday | Mon, Nov 30 | Biggest online day of the year ($14.25B in 2025), but not named the best toy day. |
| Season ends | Thu, Dec 31 | The holiday season window closes. |
Most families do the bulk of it that one weekend. According to the NRF's 2026 holiday survey, 64% of holiday shoppers say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, while 43% plan to start before November. Of the people starting later, 46% say they wait because November and December is when they expect the best prices. For the full calendar, see when to start Christmas shopping.
What 2025 data says about Black Friday toy deals and discounts
Black Friday toy deals got deeper in 2025, not shallower. According to Adobe's 2025 holiday season results, toy discounts peaked at 29.6% off listed price, up from 28% in 2024 and above its own 27% forecast. Only electronics peaked higher. Shoppers spent $8.8 billion on toys online across the season, up 7.8% from the year before.
| Category | Peak discount, 2025 | Peak discount, 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| Toys | 29.6% | 28% |
| Apparel | 25.1% | 23.2% |
| TVs | 24.3% | 24.2% |
| Computers | 23.4% | 22.8% |
- Puzzles and boxed games jumped 300% compared with October sales levels in the same data. If your kid wants a popular one, expect it to sell through.
- The best sellers were familiar categories: building sets, dolls, plush, learning toys, die-cast cars, preschool playsets, foam blasters, modeling dough, and DIY craft kits.
- Black Friday online spending grew faster than Cyber Monday in 2025 (up 9.1% vs. 7.1%), as shoppers moved on deals earlier.
A peak is not a promise
A 29.6% peak is the high point of the average discount across many items. It does not mean every toy hits that number. Some toys barely move, and hot toys can go up in price as stock runs low. So check the "was" price before you buy.
How to check if a Black Friday "was" price on a toy is real
A crossed-out "was" price on a Black Friday toy is only honest if the toy really sold at that price on a regular basis. The FTC's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing (16 CFR 233.1) say a former price must be "the actual, bona fide price at which the article was offered to the public on a regular basis" for "a reasonably substantial period of time." A store shouldn't raise a price for a week just to cut it.
You can't audit a store, but you can check for yourself. Most of the steps below come straight from the FTC's online shopping advice.
- 1
Write down the model or item number
The FTC suggests noting the maker, model number, size, and color. Similar-looking toys often come in different sizes or sets, and the number keeps you comparing the same thing.
- 2
Look up the price history
Free price trackers and browser extensions (Keepa and camelcamelcamel are two well-known ones for Amazon) show how a price moved over recent months. If the sale price matches October's regular price, it isn't much of a deal.
- 3
Know who runs the comparison site
The FTC warns that some comparison sites are set up by manufacturers, and some only list sellers who pay them.
- 4
Count the real total
Add shipping, handling, and tax before you compare. A toy that is $5 cheaper with $8 shipping costs you more.
- 5
Read the return rules
The FTC notes that sale and clearance items often have different return policies. Check before you buy, not on Dec 26.
- 6
Ask about price drops
Find out if you can get a credit or refund if the toy goes on sale again next week. Some stores also match competitors' prices.
- 7
Pay with a credit card if you can
The FTC says a credit card best protects your money if something goes wrong, and you can dispute a charge for an item that never arrives.
How to shop Black Friday toy deals from your kid's list
Shopping Black Friday toy deals from your kid's list takes five short steps spread across November. You collect what your child points at, sort it, recheck it with your child, shop only that list from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, and mark each buy. The plan saves money and keeps you from buying a toy your kid forgot about two weeks ago.
- 1
Early to mid November: capture, don't buy
When your kid points at something, snap a photo with the price tag and store name in the frame, or type a quick note. Don't judge it in the aisle. A picture Christmas list works well for kids who can't write yet.
- 2
About a week before Thanksgiving: sort the list
Delete duplicates. Mark each item must have (asked about three times), maybe (asked once, still likely a hit), or skip (a passing whim or over budget). Write down the item number and current price for the first two groups.
- 3
The weekend before: check it with your kid
Ask casually: "What are you hoping for this year?" If something has dropped off, take it off. It is the cheapest step in the whole plan.
- 4
Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday: shop the list
Open the flyers and deal pages only to look up what's already on the list. If a must have is on sale and the price history checks out, buy it. If a flyer toy isn't on any list, leave it. A great price on something nobody asked for still costs money.
- 5
After each buy: mark it
Check items off so you don't buy the same set twice, and so you can tell grandparents what's still open. Our guide to gifts from grandparents covers how to split the list.
Example with illustrative prices
In early November your seven-year-old points at a building set. You snap a photo: $59.99. Two weeks later they still bring it up, so it's a must have. Price history shows $59.99 since summer. On Black Friday it's $44.99, a real 25% off something you know they want. The flyer's front page doorbuster is a toy they've never mentioned, so you skip it.
Want the list to build itself while you shop in November? See how a photo from the aisle turns into a private gift list.
See how it worksBlack Friday toy deals online vs. in the store with kids
Black Friday toy deals mostly show up both online and in stores, so most families don't need the dawn trip with kids in tow. According to the NRF (2025), 85.7 million people shopped Black Friday online and 80.3 million shopped in stores. Shopping from the couch gets you the same list without the crowds, lines, and bathroom runs.
the SUPER fun (being sarcastic) game where your kid likes to hide from you in the clothing racks
Culpepper's conclusion was that you can get the same deals online from home. A good split for many families: one parent shops the list online Thursday night or Friday morning while the kids sleep or watch a movie. Save the store trip for one or two things you need to see in person. If little ones do come along, our tips for Christmas shopping with toddlers help.
Shoppers are getting more careful. In the NRF's 2026 holiday survey, 31% plan to comparison shop online more often and 29% plan to use coupons more. Watch the payment plans too: in an Adobe survey of more than 1,000 US consumers (November 2025), toys were among the categories people were most likely to buy with Buy Now, Pay Later. Stack a few small plans in one weekend and you feel it in January.
